On February 25, 2022, the escalation of Russia Ukraine incident shocked the global market, and the global stock market and commodity market were turbulent. Wood Mackenzie, a well-known consultancy, published an article saying that the Russia Ukraine incident will have a lasting impact on commodities, energy policy and energy transformation.
It is expected that 2022 may be a year of sharp fluctuations in the prices of international energy, non-ferrous metals and major agricultural products.
Throughout China, the rapid rise in commodity prices since the beginning of the year, coupled with the treacherous geopolitical situation, has pushed commodity prices higher, resulting in sustained pressure on relevant middle and downstream enterprises.
Take steel as an example, the demand continues to pick up. The continuous rise of steel prices will lead to the continuous increase of production costs of manufacturers in the middle and lower reaches, including tight enterprises, erode the profits of middle and lower reaches enterprises, and affect the expectations of enterprises.
At present, the middle and downstream manufacturers dare not accept orders or default in delivery after receiving orders, which even affects the enterprise's investment and production expansion and industrial upgrading.
Referring to the market price of steel on the 3rd, it is mainly rising
18 of the 24 markets of rebar increased by 10-70, and the average price of 20mmhrb400e was 4935 yuan / ton, up 26 yuan / ton from the previous trading day;
Among the 24 hot coil markets, 23 increased by 20-120, and the average price of 4.75 hot rolled coil was 5160 yuan / ton, an increase of 45 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day;
14 of the 23 markets of medium and heavy plate increased by 10-60, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary and medium plate was 5220 yuan / ton, an increase of 13 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.
Phase I steel rose as a whole today
Today, the main futures rose 30 to close at 4880, or 0.62%; The main hot coil rose 134 to close at 5249, or 2.62%; Coking coal rose 117.5% to 2882.5, or 4.25%; Coke rose 118.5% to close at 3571.5, or 3.43%; The main iron ore rose 51 to close at 797.5, or 6.83%.
Steel market price forecast
In the short term, the recovery of domestic demand, the arrival of the season of gold, silver and four, the upward movement of steel costs and the tension between Russia and Ukraine are all driving the strength of steel prices.
However, with the rise of speculation recently, the regulators may strengthen the policy of "ensuring supply and stabilizing price". In the short term, the steel price may continue to operate strongly, so it is not suitable to chase up excessively.
Middle and downstream manufacturers should strengthen their own production and operation risk management
At present, the middle and lower reaches of steel manufacturers are under continuous pressure. Relevant enterprises should strengthen the risk management of their own production experience, be good at using various means to do a good job in risk prediction and plan, and effectively avoid the risks brought by frequent price increases.
At the same time, we also need to constantly improve our competitiveness, promote technological innovation, seek ways to reduce costs, and strive to gain more voice in the market.
Yang Guangpu, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, suggested that relevant entity enterprises can sign long-term agreements with downstream enterprises to avoid the impact of raw material price fluctuations on profits;
Secondly, large enterprises can make rational use of financial instruments to avoid risks when conditions permit;
Third, enterprises should reasonably arrange their inventory, especially the inventory of raw materials and inputs. They should not only avoid insufficient inventory affecting order delivery, but also prevent hoarding too much inventory at high prices.
At the 2022 Shanghai International Fastener Industry Expo, there will be many excellent steel manufacturers, including first-line brand enterprises such as Baosteel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Masteel, Xinggang, Anshan Iron and steel, Xinxing cast pipe and so on. Welcome to the Shanghai World Expo exhibition hall from June 1 to 3 to visit our exhibition. Here, you can quickly find the raw material manufacturer and understand and discuss the cooperation matters face to face.
