After the return from the long holiday, the market's mentality to open the door was soaring, the snails in the future opened up sharply, and the spot quotations increased overall.
Cost aspect
On October 8th, Tianjin-Hebei steel enterprises immediately excluding tax of molten iron cost 3253, equivalent to the billet tax-included cost of about 4241, Tangshan billet ex-factory price of 5,310, and profit of about 1,069 yuan/ton. The inventory cost of molten iron is estimated to be around 3132 (excluding tax), which is equivalent to the billet tax-included cost of about 4104, and the profit is about 1206 yuan/ton.
In September, under the influence of the "dual control of energy consumption" policy in many places, and under the influence of local power restrictions, domestic steel mills restricted production on a large scale, and the supply side was significantly squeezed. After entering October, the steel market is still facing more "certainty" and "uncertainty" factors. The certainty is: in order to ensure that crude steel output does not exceed last year, steel mills will limit production, and the possibility of a significant increase on the supply side is unlikely; October is still in the annual construction peak season, and the phenomenon of rushing for construction period objectively exists, and terminal demand is still Will maintain a certain degree of resilience. The uncertainties are: Will the intensity of production restrictions be weakened, whether the partial “one size fits all” policy will be corrected, whether the power shortage can be alleviated, and whether the demand for different regions will accelerate differentiation?
In addition, in terms of raw materials, the price of imported iron ore has dropped significantly at a high level, the room for coke to continue to rise is limited, and scrap steel resources are still tight. It is expected that later production costs will fluctuate to a certain extent.
On the whole: We hold the following judgment on the domestic steel price trend in October: Under the current situation of shrinking supply, steel prices still have upward momentum, but the upward space is limited. Once the supply and demand situation reverses, steel prices still risk a high fall.
