This year's steel market has experienced ups and downs. Since the US trump administration announced a trade war with China and imposed copper and aluminum tariffs, the steel market has experienced severe shocks. On November 7, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association said that in October, affected by the national policies and measures to stabilize growth, market expectations increased and the release of steel production capacity remained at a high level, Drive the demand expectation and price rise of iron ore. In the later stage, the market is about to enter the off-season of steel consumption, the steel output will be reduced, the demand intensity of iron ore will show a downward trend, the price is difficult to rise continuously, and will show a slight fluctuation trend.
According to the monitoring of CISA, at the end of October, China's iron ore price index (ciopi) was 272.14 points, up 22.25 points month on month, an increase of 8.90%, an increase of 5.43 percentage points over the previous month. Steel production began to decline. According to the statistics of the ten day report of the iron and Steel Association, in mid and early October, the average daily output of member iron and steel enterprises was 1.9783 million tons of crude steel, and it was estimated that the daily output of crude steel in China was 2.528 million tons, down 7.13% from September; It is estimated that the daily output of pig iron in China is 2.033 million tons, down 8.12% from September. Affected by the decline of steel production, the demand intensity of iron ore has also decreased.
Inventory. According to the monitoring of China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore ports in China was 145 million tons, an increase of 20000 tons month on month, an increase of 0.01%; However, the year-on-year increase was 9.24 million tons, an increase of 6.80%, still at a high level; In September, the national pig iron output was 66.38 million tons, down 0.42% month on month; The import of iron ore was 93.47 million tons, an increase of 4.61% month on month. Overall, the oversupply situation in the iron ore market has not changed.
From the steel price trend, due to the relatively stable demand, the supply pressure is large. According to the monitoring of the iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, China's steel price index (CSPI) was 121.72 points, an increase of 0.08 points or 0.07% over September, showing a narrow fluctuation trend. In addition, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.2% in October, down 0.6% month on month, of which the production index and new order index decreased by 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. It is expected that the iron ore price is difficult to rise continuously in the later stage and will fluctuate slightly.
The researcher told the China Securities Journal that due to the upward fluctuation of raw material prices in October, the supporting role of cost on later steel prices has gradually increased; The social inventory of steel first rises and then falls, especially the inventory pressure of building materials decreases; From the middle of November, the production will be limited in the heating season, and the release of steel production capacity will be restrained; However, due to the arrival of winter in the north, the demand will shrink, and the improvement of the relationship between supply and demand is limited. It is expected that the steel market may show a high shock trend in November.
