Looking back at the iron and steel market in 2020, the imbalance between supply and demand caused by public health events from January to April was affected by the weak fundamentals, and the price fluctuated downward; then the price fluctuated upward from May to August, and broke through the peak at the beginning of the year; the price fluctuated from August to September, and the price recovered from September to October, and continued to rise from October to the first and middle of December. The more fundamental reason was the demand exceeding expectations, and the weak fundamentals in September made the market popular We have pessimistic expectations for the market in October and even the fourth quarter. Especially after October, the pessimistic expectations of the market are absolutely dominant, and the traders and terminal inventory are at a low level.
On the other hand, the market rigid demand continues to exist. While digesting the high output of steel plants, we continue to digest the overall steel inventory. With the passage of market time, the return of fundamentals accelerates the rise of market prices. All of the above can not do without the improvement of demand beyond expectations. In 2020, under the background of monetary easing and superimposed manufacturing cycles, the market demand side has improved significantly, which has comprehensively suppressed the bad effect brought by the wide rise of steel output. The contradiction between supply and demand is small, resulting in the continuous rise of steel price.
Affected by the high callback in the futures market, the price rise in the spot market was significantly narrowed, and the transaction performance was relatively general. After the transaction of high price resources was blocked, most of the merchants secretly shipped. Due to the recent rapid rise of spot price, the price is far higher than the terminal budget level, the market is mainly based on demand procurement, and the speculative demand is reduced. But the inventory continued to be low, although it may usher in the adjustment, but still optimistic about the late market price.
